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Development Nepal |
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Development and Stability |
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Article |
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July 15, 2009 |
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Health-Environment-Development
Co-benefits of stove soot control program: better climate and improved health
-Amod Pokhrel, University of California, Berkeley , USA
On April 16th 2009, the New York Times stunned the world by publishing following cover story: ‘Third-World Stove Soot Is Target in Climate Fight’. This story has generated both intense debate, and hope in developing and developed countries. The debate is – is it justifiable on the part of developed countries to shift blame of global warming to the poorer people in the third-world? And the hope is - could this be short-term solutions to global warming?
Currently around three billion people in the world burn unprocessed biomass-based solid fuels (wood, dung, crop residues and coal) for cooking and heating. In Nepal about 90% of people rely on solid fuels for cooking and heating. In many developing countries including Nepal, solid fuels are burned in simple three stones or mud stoves (चुलो). In majorities of households, women cook predominantly, often carrying baby if she is nursing. Also in many villages not connected to electricity, children gathered around stove to read and write in the evening. Unfortunately, burning unprocessed biomass fuels indoors generates indoor air pollution (IAP) that also include black particles/soot, exposes millions of people especially women, children and elderly to harmful pollutants.
The New York Times story on black carbon/particles or soot and its relation to global climate change was based on the major findings of James E. Hansen of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Larissa Nazarenko of Columbia University, who on Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, reported that soot may have caused fully 25 percent of the global warming observed since 1880. In their research, Hansen and Nazarenko found that black particles absorbs more solar energy and warm the air; when they settle on glaciers, the latter start melting faster. According to Hansen and Nazarenko, the black particles raise temperatures twice as effectively as carbon dioxide does, and is responsible for 18 percent of the planet’s warming, compared with 40 percent for carbon dioxide. According to authors, biomass fuel combustion alone accounts for fifty percent of black particles in the atmosphere and other half comes from vehicles, power and cement plants and other industrial combustion.
After publication of this report, many environmentalists, climate scientists and policy makers in developed countries have already started considering reduction of black carbon as a one of a number of relatively quick and simple climate fixes to avert the consequences of global warming. One example of such swift action on this direction is that a bill has recently been introduced in the US Congress requiring the country’s environment protection agency to regulate black carbon and direct aid to black carbon reduction projects abroad, including introducing improved cooking stoves (सुधारिएको चुलो) in some 20 million homes. However, in developing countries many environmentalists and climate scientists are skeptics about this proposition because only focusing on simple climate fix in poorer developing countries may create space for vehicles and power stations to continue to pollute in developed and in some developing countries.
In this ongoing debate, one thing we cannot ignore is that black soot emitted indoors affects health of millions of people, especially women, children and elderly. And introduction of improved cooking stoves can help lower the soot emission and offer additional health benefits for millions of people. If this is the case then should developing countries including Nepal take benefit from this kind of black carbon reduction projects, which can help tackle health and climate change issues at the same time? If so why and how can country like Nepal take benefit?
Nepal’s climate records show that temperature has increased dramatically in the uplands regions. Over the period 1977–1994, mean annual maximum temperatures in the northern part has increased by more than 0.06 Co per year above the long-term mean, with some regions recording increases of up to 0.12 C o per year. This contrasts with the Siwalik and Terai regions in the lowlands that warmed less than 0.03 C o per year. Rising of average temperatures in the higher elevation have already caused a massive retreat of glaciers, which are sources of headwaters for many large rivers in South Asia. For example according to the Nepalese Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), there have been more than 15 glaciers led floods (GLOF) in the past. In addition to GLOF, rising temperature in higher elevation means there are possibilities of shifting of disease vectors and epidemics of malaria upwards along with shifting of agriculture pattern leading to over or under production. Compared to developed countries, climate change will have different repercussions in Nepal although its average per capita CO2 emission is about 0.2 metric ton/year compared with US, which has per capita emission of 6 metric ton/year with Canada and Australia not far behind.
Since Nepal’s per capita contribution of CO2 is 30 times less than that of an average American, Canadian or Australian’s, Nepal does not currently have any obligations under the climate change convention to reduce its CO2 or Green House Gases (GHGs). However, Nepal’s efforts to reduce these gases are tremendous and deserve recognition. Introduction and wider disseminations of biogas plants, micro-hydro projects and improved cooking stoves by the government are some examples in this direction. However, because of lack of resources, Nepal government has not yet been able to disseminate improved stoves to millions of homes in rural areas. Thus, in recognition of its effort of black soot mitigation, international development agencies should help Nepal government further disseminate improved stoves in rural areas. The wider dissemination of such stoves will offer Nepal and Global community a clear co-benefit --better climate and improved health for millions of people.
Co-benefit- how?
The traditional sources of energy (biomass fuel) dominate the energy supply in Nepal. The share of traditional, commercial and renewable energy was 88 percent, 12 percent 0.53 percent respectively during FY 2004/05. Of the total traditional energy consumption, share of fuel wood was 89 percent, agriculture residue 4 percent and cattle residue 7 percent. This shows that energy consumption is dominated by household use and almost of which is supplied by traditional sources, mainly fuel wood and other biomass. Similarly, the energy consumption growth over the last 15 years till 2005 is almost linear with an annual average increase of 2.7 percent. The annual average growth rate of traditional energy consumption is 2.2 percent. The contribution of alternative energy technologies including hydropower is rising rapidly but it contributes only about 0.6 percent of the current total energy demand. Although the share of traditional sources of energy is gradually decreasing from the total energy consumption, its utilization is still increasing in a steady pace. Burning of traditional sources of energy or biomass based fuel in unvented condition generates hundreds of harmful substances, in the form of gases and particles. The typical 24-hour average concentration of particles (PM10) in homes using biomass based fuels may range from 200-5000 ug/m3, which is an order of magnitude higher than typical health based air pollution standards.
Studies conducted of Indoor Air Pollution (IAP) from fuel combustions and its health effects in developing countries have provided evidence of associations between IAP and acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI), low birth weight in children and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, cataracts and tuberculosis in adult women. Acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI), COPD, cataracts and tuberculosis are the four most common diseases associated with IAP in Nepal. These diseases account for more than 6% of all OPD (Out patients department) visits to health institution. Similarly, Nepal has an under-five mortality rate of 91/1000 live births. It has been estimated that, on average, of the 1000 children below 5 years who visit health facilities, 90 have pneumonia of which 4 have severe pneumonia. According to recent report of World Health Organizations (WHO) on global burden of disease from use of traditional biomass fuel, the ALRI deaths attributable to traditional fuel use in Nepal is about 5000 and COPD deaths attributable to traditional fuel is about 3000. The national burden of disease attributable to use of traditional fuel is about 3 percent with Disability Adjusted Life Years of 205,000- DALYs, which is a combined metric of time loss due to premature mortality and morbidity from particular disease in population. In addition to indoor air pollution (IAP), combustion of one gram of wood fuel in traditional stove also produces approximately 1.7 grams of CO2 as emissions. Assuming a six members’ family house burning ~ 10 Kg of wood everyday, in one year one traditional biomass fuel stove generates about 7 tons of CO2. Even with conservative estimates of fifty percent efficiency of improved stove (wood stove with grate and chimney- सुधारिएको चुलो), replacement of one traditional woodstove by improved stove in rural areas will emit 3.5 tons less CO2 and other global warming gases/year per stove. A robust improved stove cost ~$ 20 and they last for at least 4 years. Thus, if 100000 improved stoves are disseminated in rural areas that will avoid ~ 350000 tons of CO2 going into atmosphere. Again assuming improved stoves averting half of total DALYs, the crude cost-effectiveness of such program will be ~ $ 20/DALYs and ~ $6/ ton equivalent of CO2 respectively. Currently the market value of one ton CO2 equivalent in Europe is about $20 and market thresholds of health intervention is $1500/DALY. Similarly, compared to traditional stove, one small biogas plant emits 7 tons less CO2. If 100000 such plants are disseminated then that will emit 700000 tons less CO2 with additional health benefits as it emits negligible amount of particles.
Unfortunately, currently improved cooking stoves are omitted from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) or certified emission reductions approved projects. However, recently through voluntary carbon market, J.P. Morgan, Land Rover and the UC Berkeley based Center for Entrepreneurship in International Health and Development (CEIHD) have struck a deal of certified emission reduction (CER) trading of 15000 tons of CO2 from improved cook stoves project in Uganda. This development suggests that there is a possibility to expand similar CER program in Nepal, where government has already disseminated about 100 000 improved stoves and planning to disseminate further 400000 stoves in 10 years time period.
Unlike improved cook stoves, the bio-gas plants are approved as CDM type project. The World Bank has included 19,396 biogas plants from Nepal as CDM type projects through carbon prototype fund. This deal will translate more than $6.5 million within first 10 year crediting period with US$ 7 per ton CO2. The revenue generated from this deal will be deployed back to develop and disseminate more biogas plants, which will help not only generate more revenue but also health benefits.
Athough calculations made above are simple but these assumptions are fair estimates and call attention of international development agencies for this type of interventions for co-benefits investments in Nepal. For carbon financing or CER/emission trading, Ministry of Environment should seriously consider monitoring and evaluation of its disseminated improved stoves and prove that emission reductions have actually been achieved, people are using existing stoves and benefiting from such programs. Similarly, it should also collect information about renewability of biomass fuel in local areas where improved stoves have been disseminated. This will help to qualify improve stove projects under clean development mechanism (CDM). One among several approaches for collecting renewability information could be through GIS mapping applying WISDOM model (Wood fuel Integrated Supply/Demand Overview Mapping model) developed by FAO. This model estimate fuel wood renewability at the community level.
Similarly, to qualify for more carbon credit from biogas project, a research is needed to prove that there is little or no methane leakage from existing plants and people are actually using biogas instead of biomass fuel in unimproved stoves. This could be done by monitoring methane in and around bio-gas plants. In conclusion, projects like improved cook stoves and bio-gas stoves can help to tackle not only the problem of black carbon and global warming but also help to improve health of women and children at the same time in Nepal. And, investment on these programs can provide a big bang for the bucks.
Reference:
Shrestha Arun B, 1999. Maximum Temperature Trends in the Himalaya and Its Vicinity: An Analysis Based on Temperature Records from Nepal for the Period 1971–94. American Meteorological Society.
Mool PK, Bajracharya Samjwal BR & Joshi SP, 2001. Inventory of Glaciers, Glacial Lakes and Glacial Lake Outburs Floods: Monitoring and Early Warning Systems in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region. ICIMOD and UNEP
Patz JA, Gibbs HK, Foley JA, Rogers JV & Smith KR, 2007. Climate Change and Global Health: Quantifying a Growing Ethical Crisis. EcoHealth 4, 397-405.
Ministry of Finance. 2006. Economic Survey Annual Report 2004/05, Department of Health Services 2006, Ministry of Health and Population, Government of Nepal, Kathmandu.
Indoor Air Pollution: National Burden of Disease Estimate. WHO/SDE/PHE/07.01, 2007.
MacCarty N, Ogle D, Still D, Bond T, Roden C & Wilson B, 2007. Laboratory Comparison of the Global-Warming Potential of Six Categories of Biomass Cooking Stoves. Aprovecho Research Center, OR, USA.
Johnson M, Edwards R, Frenk CA, Masera O, 2008. In-field greenhouse gas emissions from cook stoves in rural Mexican households. Atmospheric Environment 42:1206-1222
Smith KR & Haigler Evan, 2007. Cobenefits of climate mitigation and health protection in energy systems: scoping methods. Annu.Rev.Public Health 2008. 29:18.1-18.5
Johnson M, Edwards R, Frenk CA, Masera O, 2007. Why current assessment methods may lead to significant underestimation of GHG reductions of improved stoves. Boiling Point; 54:11-14
Note: Applying Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) = P(RR-1)/P(RR-1)+1 = 0.80(2.3-1)/P(2.3-1)+1 = 0.51; where P is proportion of exposed to biomass smoke, Relative Risk (RR) for IAP-ALRI =2.3 |
